Monthly Archives: December 2011

Weekly Market Update—Merry Christmas

jeremy The DJIA fell below 12,000 as it slipped 2.61% last week. The S&P 500 fell 2.83%, while the tech stocks got hit the hardest with the NASDAQ falling 3.46%. Broadly, stocks are in negative territory for the year. The DJIA currently stands as the only index in positive territory. Large cap stocks have outperformed small cap stocks and domestic equities have significantly outperformed international stocks.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee noted that the economy has been “expanding moderately” and gave no indication that additional quantitative easing measures are on the way. However, they will leave the fed funds rate at 0.25% and will continue to replace short-term bond holdings with longer dated maturities in an effort to keep long-term interest rates down.

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Housing Continues to Stabilize

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index climbed two points in December, up for the third straight months, to 21, the highest level since May 2010.  Economists expected an unchanged reading of 20, but the prior month was revised down by one point to 19.  Although builder confidence remains low by historical standards, the improvement indicates “pockets of recovery are slowly starting to emerge in scattered housing markets,” according to the NAHB.  All three index components improved in December, led by a three-point gain in the traffic of prospective buyers to its highest level since May 2008.

The South, which experienced some of the harshest housing bubble-bust consequences, saw the largest improvement in builder confidence to its best level since March 2008.  Other regions were mixed.  We expect housing market news to continue to show this segment of the economy is stabilizing, a sign residential investment will not be a drag on output growth in 2012.

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PMI Indicates Global Slowdown

stacey10 PMI, or Purchasing Managers’ Index, is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of more than 50 represents expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

The chart below shows the PMI for major economies around the globe.  The sluggish growth of the U.S. leads the way, and only 6 countries listed are in a growth mode.  This is a stark contrast from the first of the year when 22 countries were showing growing activity.

 

PMI SUMMARY

 

United States

52.7

Growing

Russia

52.6

Growing

Turkey

52.3

Growing

South Africa

51.6

Growing

India

51.0

Growing

Israel

50.7

Growing

Global

49.6

Contracting

Poland

49.5

Contracting

Japan

49.1

Contracting

Singapore

48.7

Contracting

Brazil

48.7

Contracting

Czech Republic

48.6

Contracting

Ireland

48.5

Contracting

Germany

47.9

Contracting

Hungary

47.8

Contracting

Australia

47.8

Contracting

Denmark

47.7

Contracting

China

47.7

Contracting

United Kingdom

47.6

Contracting

Sweden

47.6

Contracting

Austria

47.6

Contracting

France

47.3

Contracting

Korea

47.1

Contracting

New Zealand

46.5

Contracting

Euro-Zone

46.4

Contracting

Netherlands

46.0

Contracting

Switzerland

44.8

Contracting

Italy

44.0

Contracting

Taiwan

43.9

Contracting

Spain

43.8

Contracting

Greece

40.9

Contracting

Data for Israel and New Zealand through 10/31/2011.  All other data through 11/30/2011.

Source: Haver Analytics and Ned Davis Research

While the U.S. certainly looks better on a relative basis, it is highly unlikely that global problems won’t continue to be a drag on our economy.  We remain mildly bullish for now.  – Stacey Wall

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Filed under Economic Outlook, Government & Money, Market Update, Stacey Wall Commentary, Stocks

Pinnacle Trust Christmas Party!

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Tebow Time for Stocks?

stacey10 With the Dow Jones Industrial Average right about where our Ned Davis 2011 Cycle Composite said it would be, does the market have a Tim Tebow-like year-end rally left?

Europe and political gridlock continue to cast a dark shadow on the financial markets.  Recent rallies have lacked a significant amount of volume and there appears to be an overabundance of supply.  Our indicators have been on neutral 63% of the time this year, suggesting the trading range that we’ve experienced.

Yet, our Cycle Composite does suggest a year-end rally.  Tebow time? – Stacey Wall

image

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Filed under Financial Planning, Life Balance, Market Update, Stacey Wall Commentary, Stocks

Season’s Greetings from Pinnacle Trust

cmas2011

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Weekly Market Update–Markets Surge, Unemployment Rate Drops

jeremy

Equity markets exploded to the upside on a slew of positive news. For the week ending December 2nd, the DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all gained over 7.0%. European stocks had even better results with the MSCI Europe ex UK Index soaring 9.2%. Oil prices also surged, closing the week at $101 per barrel, up 4.3%.

Western central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank, announced that they will make coordinated efforts to ease pressure on European banks. They will do so by loaning the European Central Bank (ECB) dollars, who will then in-turn loan them to European banks. This improves liquidity, unclogs European credit markets, and allows European financial institutions to make loans in U.S. dollars. It also gives them the ability to pay back loans to U.S. financial institutions.

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Nelson Promoted to CIO

jeremys pic Pinnacle Trust recently announced that Jeremy Nelson has been promoted to Chief Investment Officer.  Jeremy received his B.S. in Business Administration with a Minor in Finance from Belhaven College, graduating Magna Cum Laude.  He is a graduate of the American Bankers’ Association National and Graduate Trust Schools, where Jeremy earned his Certified Financial Trust & Advisor designation.  He is currently serving as the President of the Board of Directors of the Mississippi Chapter of The Financial Planning Association (FPA).

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